GPT-4 is 500 times more powerful and boasts 100 trillion machine learning parameters,
It sounds most excellent. But does the technology scale?
I don't know that expansion of learning parameters can improve upon contextual chain based associations. That appears to be the missing link as far as GPT and soft AI go. However many contextual points of reference artificial intelligence requires to produce creative works that are linear in context to human cognitive function. It is possible that we have not yet developed an optimal data structure or algorithm for producing or even emulating the mechanism within a software engineering context.
This issue runs parallel to tech corps like tesla having difficulty with self driving apps. Translating contextual cues of driving on a road. To a format that an AI can comprehend and extrapolate to the correct response. Could well be a vastly understated issue as far as machine learning and AI go.
Its an old debate. Some claim the human brain functions on a quantum level with an extraordinarily high number of computations being necessary to produce human consciousness. For many years scientists dismissed these claims. But in a recent turn of events, it seems that the concept of the human brain functioning on a quantum level has gained traction in science circles. Whether or not an AI would need to meet or exceed the expectations of calculation a brain operating on a quantum level is capable of. Remains an unanswered question.
I don't think they are shooting for human-levels of cognition with this update, far from that actually, I think they are just supplanting much-needed updates on the model to make it a more efficient AI. As per the concept of consciousness, I don't think that's what they are going for as well. It's a slippery slope when we talk about AI and self-serving, self-conscious AIs but as it stands today I don't think there's one that's existing nor will there ever be until at least better computer hardware is produced.
Judging from all these parameters I don't think the technology scales at all, especially if they are not reaching for something that is within human-level cognition anyway, as there is no need to.