Either that or it's a massive coincidence that each time the inflation drops in half that price ends up in a bull market... which sure, why not, it could be. But otherwise with 50% less supply available to sell from miners, it's obvious to see why with a stable demand price would increase. It should only be by 2x logically speaking, but obvious Bitcoin's price movements aren't always very logical.
Or it's not a coincidence and it's triggered by the belief that the
BTC will go up, with users buying in and thus themselves self-fulfilling their prophecies. If you have a ton user and hey all claim that when the halving will happen the price will go up and everybody expects that and is not selling then you have the perfect market conditions for a bull-run, but it's again created by beliefs nothing else.
Sure, I can believe that. It's something I've always considered to be honest - the self-fulfilling prophecy of Bitcoin price increase increasing price. All that's needed is for buying pressure to drop by 50% after the selling pressure drops by 50% post-halving and you'd have a sideways market, not a bull market. For all we know by 2024 we'll be mid-recession and the halving won't the same affect as previous times.
But until that happens, price remains in a 4-year cycle regardless. Even if it's driven by the speculation of increased prices due to decrease in inflation, rather than genuinely because of inflation decrease.
And sure I don't deny that you could be right here, ie speculating that the scare of a recession was over that Bitcoin rebounded. But personally, I don't think that fear has really gone away yet.
Well, this one we will see it now since I'm looking at WTI hitting $67, so let's see where it goes. Banks being bailed out was really a bumper here, a failure in doing so would have propelled
BTC even with a recession incoming, so, uncharted territory here, I wouldn't be surprised to wake up at 20k or 40k and just raise an eyebrow with 10k more in each direction.
One thing I have noticed is in the past few days (during the rise from $20K back to $25K) Bitcoin lost it's correlation to S&P and Nasdaq and instead correlated with Gold. It's not often it happens, in fact Bitcoin is usually correlated to "risk-on" assets as you probably know (and I think have referenced). Whereas now that correlation is breaking, so even in a recession Bitcoin could thrive like Gold has in the past.
It's just a theory, but as I've always said Bitcoin is correlated with stock market until it's not. And for the first time in a long-time, it's lost it's correlation. So all the bearish outlook of stocks projected onto Bitcoin isn't going to be relevant anymore unless the correlation returns (simple reality imo). Ironically, previous times Bitcoin has lost this correlation has been at the start of bull markets or during recoveries.