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This might help you to make a right bet. Gaethje is a base wrestler that did not rely or use his skills lately. What we usually hear about Gaethje - ooohh he has vicious low kicks, watch for them. What I know about Fiziev - his current residence is Thailand and earn for a living by fighting and training with thai boxers. Yes, the guys who rely much on elbows and low kicks. Fizies is 10000% ready against Gaethje low kicks. I would say that Gaethje will be partly disarmed in this fight. Plus Fizies is fast. Fiziev previous fight against RDA, a black belt in BJJ, showed that Fiziev is able to defence against master of subs for 5 rounds, have enough stamina for 5 rounds.
I have gone with Rafael Fiziev just because I think he can pulverize Gaethje and he looks really tough enough to handle those kicks but if Justin Gaethje resolves with his base wrestling maybe he would get back to that but Rafael Fiziev might have a good takedown defense I really think there are many fighters now that have a good takedown defense now just because some fear wrestling, but for me, Rafael Fiziev looks buff but there is still a chance for Justin Gaethje winning this, but again I think Fiziev could win this,
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I'll give Leon credit for the win, obviously. However, Alex Pereira was a little different, he was always in that fight, and always looked dangerous. Leon, didn't even look competitive at certain stages of that fight. So, while there definitely was a element of luck to land that kick, at least to connect in the way it did. He had the technique, and patience to actually throw it. So, he made his own luck.
I'm quite liking the odds though, Usman at 1.40 is extremely good considering how dominant of a performance it was up until that kick. Whether or not he comes out guns blazing, I think he takes the win whatever way he wants. He's going to be extra motivated to get his belt back, and save himself from the embarrassment of the last fight. I think he's a good one to beef up anyone's accumulator, and should win.
I feel that Kamaru Usman will surely dominate again in this fight, there might be no higher chance for Leon Edwards to escape now, that embarrassment that Kamaru Usman feels will surely linger in him and right now I think all he feels is anger towards the man that steals from him while seeing Edwards still doesn't have any clue at all, well I am still waiting for the Press Conference to starts then I may conclude what kind of mentality Leon Edwards has gone inside the Octagon and about this fight,
I got Fiziev as he has more tools in striking than Justin Gaethje, has good enough wrestling defense and has improved cardio as seen vs Dos Anjos.