Aren't you too optimistic on that? I've doubted Arsenal's ability to keep their lead at the beginning of the year and I can also see them winning now. It's just that I wouldn't say they are too far ahead when there are still 11 games to play and up to 33 points to collect. City is also in a good form right now and have only drawn 1 out of their last 5 matches. That's a pretty consistent performance in my book.
33 points to collect but look at the recent form Arsenal are the better form but Manchester City have improved recently but they are still fighting in the Champions League and have just advanced to the next stage which might take a lot out of their players. I think they will need to make a decision on what they push for the most because they do not have the depth at the moment to compete in both competitions. Arsenal is 5 points ahead and I think they will think they have a better chance in the Champions League and will probably mean more to their fans if they win it.