I don't believe in shorting shitcoins because I would prefer not to gamble and/or to potentially get reckt in the event that some scammer pumps that illiquid crap.

We already have a very asymmetric bet with bitcoin, and sure in current times, it seems that the US Govt is demonstrating quite a bit of hostility towards bitcoin and not really even seeming to know what is being discussed.. sure there are some of the government and financial folks who actually do know what bitcoin is, and maybe in some overall sense the US Govt is going to attempt to short-bitcoin (are they going to be more effective than China.. or have to back track several times, just like China seems to have had to have done several times and the more recent example with allowing Hong Kong to be more specially zoned for bitcoin, and if it does not go well for the US of A in the various ongoing hostilities, then what are they going to do?  likely retaliate in various sneaky ways.. as they already seem to be doing in regards to attempting to control on and off ramps, and I am not even sure if they have any kind of a clear plan about what they are doing in terms of the off-shoring of incentives.. and I am not really sure how that is going to play out.. and yeah, maybe the off-shore people are going to end up doing better with bitcoin as compared with the US A people.. even though there has been a decent amount of seemingly scattered (and doesn't make a lot of sense) hostility in the Euro-zone, too. I don't know..



I doubt that it is easy to determine if we are in a bear market or a bull market while we are in the midst of it.

So, yes, you are right with the implication that currently, it is possible that we might be getting out of the bear market.. but it is not really clear until after we are surely out of it, and for sure, 2019 was a bit of a tricky year because it does seem that the April to June 2019 run was the first signs that we were actually out of the bear market and back to a bull market, even though we did end up having a couple of pretty strong corrections after the June/July 2019 price peak.

Just because there was a strong peak and then a strong correction in 2019 does not provide great odds that a similar pattern will follow, especially since we are not in 2019, and there are surely some different macro dynamics that exist - but at the same time, bitcoin is not completely correlated to macro-factors since it is still quite early within its adoption phase, and there is no reason to really doubt that the various network effects and Metcalfe principles that contribute towards the exponential aspects of bitcoins adoption phase are likely ending any time soon... even if there could be some short to medium term uncertainties and battles.



What's crypto?


After 11 years, you haven't got enough lillie fiends yet?

Who would-a-thunk?


 

I can imagine Phil living until 108 (in the year 2065), and still feeling that he doesn't have enough sats.

 

At some point you gotzta have 'nuff, no?