You can check my analysis yourself: in second place is Lazio. Lazio have 52 points and if they win all the games before the end of the championship they will have 85 points. According to the old Napoli regulations, it would have been enough to score 14 points to catch up with Lazio and become champions in additional indicators. But I just checked and according to the new regulations, if the points are equal, a golden match is assigned, so in order to definitely become the champion Napoli need to score 15 points in the remaining 11 games. This percentage of points scored corresponds to the level of Sassuolo - it is extremely unlikely that Napoli will sink so low.
Nice analysis!
Both conditions will not be met in my opinion so chance for Lazio to be champion is zero, risk for Napoli to lose it is zero too. To conclude, Napoli will be champion of Serie A 2022 - 2023.
Because Lazio will not be able to win all their 11 games and Napoli will be able to win at least 5 more games that is a max required win matches to take the title if Lazio win all 11 games. If Lazio win less than 11 games, Napoli will need to win less than 5 more games to be a new champion.