When the time comes for investors to unlock coins, then the market capitalization will increase and, accordingly, the capitalization of ARB will be higher than the projects you have indicated. But during the year, Circulating Supply will remain unchanged, so we will not see significant changes in the Coinmarketcap rating until March 23, 2024.
Projects with initial airdrops will have pumps and dumps in early days and weeks because airdrop receivers don't have any reason to hold their claimed tokens. They are like bounty hunters who need quick money and will dump their 'free' tokens when it get listed on exchanges.
Very few bounty hunters do their due diligent research and actually understand about a project and have solid belief in it like real investors. Who have belief will hold their tokens as investment from 'free' tokens.
A story of Uniswap airdrop (300 $UNI for each airdrop receiver) is still here. Most of them sold $UNI about $4 and got $1200 that is very great reward for their experience on Uniswap in early days. Months later, $UNI made its all time high about $40 and if any airdrop receiver hold it till $40, they will get $12,000.
I don't know about future of Arbitrum but if you have belief, you can hold the token a few months or till 2024 bull run.