Didn't understood the math. 85% of 10 BTC = 8.5 BTC
You're right. I missed (the players) 1 BTC.
I think you didn't get my point.
ok, now I see that will be house tickets in the initials rounds. So lets do the math again:
You are giving 9 BTC for the first round, so, if I send 1 BTC and I win (66% chance), I will receive 8.5 BTC, if the house win the amount will be available for the next round.
so I will send another 1 BTC for the second round, the total jackpot will be 11 BTC, if I win (76.92% chance) I will receive 11 - 0.5% = 10.945 * 85% = 9.30325 BTC. if the house wins, supposing you will get the house rake from the total jackpot, 10.945 will be available for the next round.
so I will send another 1 BTC for the third round, the total jackpot will be 11.945 BTC, if I win (0.8333%) I will receive 11.945 - 1% = 11.82555 * 85% = 10.0517175 BTC. if the house wins, supposing you will get the house rake from the total jackpot, 11.82555 will be available for the next round.
And on the forth round, as this round will not have house tickets I will have paid a total of 4 BTC and will receive a total of 10.68368315 BTC.
Still easy money.
You understood the game well.
But do not forget: you're gonna compete with other players as well...
The full pot is just a "1st game promotion" and it's a contribution from the project's sponsors.
BTW, for this experiment to last longer, I'm thinking about splitting the 9 BTC within 3 games.
[Update] So we did it that way... so not only this 1st game gets +EV but also those yet to come...