Solana future depends on the activities of the team, the cut off of the solana block chain is still a problem for the project, if arbitrum, zksync and others like starknet performs better, solana will lose a lot of investors, because they will move funds of solana ecosystem and invest in other projects.
This is the threat for every old projects, they became stagnant until to no progress at all so this will be a risky timeline for SOL, if they want to retain and attract more investors then they should continue to compete and have a good update as well. $ARB is one of a big threat right now because there’s still a hype for this project, though this is not an endgame yet for SOL, I can still see this project as a good one and new ath is still possible.
the target of 40 bucks is not that hard to achieve given that they are about 20 bucks for their current price. however, as you said, investors or buyers will be interested on this project if they see progress or any good developments coming out via news.
though they are very far from their ATH of 260 bucks, i believe, they still have the chance as this platform is one of the promising ones as compared to most alts with no use case at all. the dev team should be aggressive in giving updates to its community. otherwise, people will just move on to the new one in the market.