You are right. It is much more difficult to predict which team will win the Champions League title. Manchester City and PSG were the favorites for the title in the last few seasons. But they could not win the title.
Manchester City did played better than PSG in last two seasons. PSG after their failed final match with Bayern Munich did fell down a lot in Champions League. They were out since round of 16 in the two latest seasons which I am sure nobody can consider such performances are good and deserved to be from a candidate for the trophy.
On the other hand, the Chelsea team won the title in the 2020-21 season. No one expects Chelsea to win the Champions League title. And so I would say every team that qualified for the quarter-finals has a chance to win the Champions League title. It is impossible to predict which team will win the title so early.
Before that season, Chelsea did have many impressive seasons in Champions League and they failed in one final match against Manchester United. They won that season with a generation of players who had good experienced in Champions League. They stably joined quarter finals and semi finals in many seasons before that one.
It is what both Manchester City and PSG were not able to do in the last ten years in Champions League.