I think Türkiye will get to the final part of this tournament with 99% probability. In fact, in the modern format it is quite difficult not to get there, given the fact that even taking third place, a team can get a ticket through an additional tournament. By the way, now bookmakers estimate Turkey's chances of winning Europe 24 as 1 to 51, and Wales' chances as 1 to 81 - at least this means that bookmakers consider Turkey to be the favorite in the fight for second place in Group D.
Only first two teams in the group will go to the Euros but i think Turkiye will have a hard battle with Wales for this second spot. I think Croatia will easily pass the group even with their four points currently. I think the matchup between wales and turkiye will decide
No such thing. In addition to the first two places, three more teams will receive a ticket to the final tournament, which will be the winners of an additional mini-tournament with three "branches". The composition of the participants in this mini-tournament will be determined based on the success of the teams in the League of Nations (as you understand, the most successful teams will receive a ticket without it, which means their places will go to the less successful ones).