I think Türkiye will get to the final part of this tournament with 99% probability. In fact, in the modern format it is quite difficult not to get there, given the fact that even taking third place, a team can get a ticket through an additional tournament. By the way, now bookmakers estimate Turkey's chances of winning Europe 24 as 1 to 51, and Wales' chances as 1 to 81 - at least this means that bookmakers consider Turkey to be the favorite in the fight for second place in Group D.
I think have two team will qualify to UEFA Euro 2024 final stage between first and second standing team, with new format on EURO 2024 have 23 participants team will play in the final round. Still have chance for Türkiye will get final ticket for EURO 2024 because on current standing position have three points and left 1 points from Croatia and Wales have 4 points.
UEFA Euro qualifiers have 6 matches left with Türkiye on group D and have five national teams, I think Türkiye will win with matches left against Armenia and Latvia are weakness national team in this group. But if Croatia and Wales consistent winning all matches left will be difficult for Türkiye get automatically ticket to EURO 2024 in Germany.