It is not easy to predict which team will win the Champions League title. Because the favorite team does not always win the Champions League. PSG, Munich, and Manchester City have been favorites for the Champions League title in the last few seasons. But they could not win the title. Chelsea won the title in the 2020–21 season. But no one imagined that Chelsea would win the title. Madrid and Manchester City seem to favorite this season as well. But every team in the quarter-finals is strong enough this season. And so it cannot be said for sure which team will be the champion this year.
When Chelsea won the Champions League in previous season their performance was not bad as this. The winner of the champions League this season will be any of the three favorite team which is Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester City. Chelsea is far from winning Champions league.
It's true what you said that Chelsea at that time was much better and stable. Now that they are far from hopeful, they always get negative results even in games that should be easy for them. I don't rule out their chances of becoming champions, but I just think it's realistic to see what's happening with Chelsea right now. I think them being in this stage is also an achievement, because judging by the performance I don't think they deserve this place.