I am actually very weak in analysis so I would like to know from your personal analysis that Bitcoin can go below 20k again?
Of course it can but the real question is when not if. That none of us can predict and this we must have some fiat at hand ready to catch the falling coins when they start dropping. This along with selling at the high equals to a continuous cycling of money and hence we will be profitable in our approach.
You don't need to do much analysis for long term. You have to pick the correct price of low at the proper time and hold that for the correct time to sell it.