This is more of a philosophical debate, but feel free to tell me if my reasoning is wrong.
People often talk about the price potential of BTC or gold, in terms of US dollars or euro. In my opinion this does not make sense because the value of euros and dollars can be destroyed by central banks printing them to infinity.
So it only makes sense to debate the value of BTC or gold, in terms of an other store of value with a limited availability (BTC expressed in gold, or gold expressed in BTC. Or even in silver)
Fiat currency is not a store of value as we all know. Currency is not money because any currency in history got inflated to 0.
There is an estimated 208 000 tonnes (208 000 000 kgs) of gold available on planet earth. This has been mined throughout history and we can assume that this is not lost. But let's estimate it at 210 000 tonnes to make it easy.
The amount of bitcoin that will ever be available, is capped at 21 million coins. So for each coin that is available, there is 10 kgs of gold available (210 million divided by 21 million = 10)
So in terms of value 1 BTC is worth 10kgs of gold. But given that 10kgs of gold costs 650 000 dollars today and 1 BTC costs 30 000, BTC must be undervalued and still has a potential to 20x from here. So why would people buy gold as a hedge against inflation, when they can buy BTC that undervalued by a factor of at least 20?
Is any of the above wrong?
A few side notes:
- I think this is only true when BTC reaches mass adoption like gold does now. But I think this has a good chance of happening because CBDC's will lose their value just like fiat currency. People will run to real stores of value like precious metals or BTC. BTC is more accessible than gold and so I expect more people to chose BTC over time.
- Given the fact that many coins are lost and thus not available for trading, maybe the real amount of BTC that will ever be in circulation is more like 15 million. This makes BTC more rare and increases its value in gold significantly.
- Sales of gold are already subjected to taxation in nearly every country. I don't know if the government will succeed in taxing BTC. I guess only if BTC needs to get converted to currency, because then the banks and the IRS get involved. But if we can avoid that conversion for payment (directly in BTC), the IRS and the government are bypassed.
If I am wrong about anything here, please tell me.