That's the problem and the beauty of football competitions. To win the title a team needs to have luck, not only quality. Because in knockout games one red card or one penalty can make all the difference and otherwise inferior team can win. That's why I actually don't like to say that some team will probably win a competition because you never know. Look at Croatia and how they played at the last two World Cups. They finished as second and third team and I honestly can't say (even though I'm from Croatia) that Croatia is one of the top three teams in the world.