Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.

It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year. Both are possible. Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them? I don't have a crystal ball.

I know someone who actually has a crystal ball who I asked about Bitcoin and I still trust my TA more than her.

So what kind of odds are you giving it?

I do NOT claim to know too much about BTC in the short-term, but I am investing for the long term, and I was thinking at least two years, but I was fairly certain that we would know within this year whether BTC is going up or NOT.

You can even pick a larger number and predict that BTC will stay below $500 for at least half of the next year (or some other quantity). I am sure you would get bets on such a bearish prediction.

Personally, I have NO real idea, and I do NOT claim to have any real predictive capabilities (even though I spout them out here and there and within this thread b/c I am saying what I am thinking and putting my money on such thoughts, unless someone causes me to rethink my strategy).

In that regard, I would imagine in the next 365 days that we are more likely to see more days above $500 for that period rather than below $500 for that period. That would be a pretty interesting bet, and if if the bet were 50/50 odds, I may take it for some small amount.

I do NOT have enough foresight to know for sure, but I am sure that if you wanted to take such a bet, there would be plenty of posters in this thread that would be willing to bet you on that specific kind of prediction (maybe adjust the numbers a little bit to suit predictive values and what odds or any other details).

I didn't claim to predict that either. I just said that it was possible, and I was basing solely on a 2011 chart. However, that's a very crude way to make a prediction. It all depends what events unfold in this time, especially those involving the opening and closing of exchanges.

I was NOT the only person that responded to your post, and it seems that some people took offense to it. I just tried to convert it into more specifics.. through the framing of a bet. I don't really care about bets very much; however, framing the bet can get us down to specifics to some extent.. especially when it seems that you were getting a little dig in at my comment about the crystal ball...

Well, you know we go based on a lot of things, and you put a lot of weight on TA graphs, at least that is what you say, and in the end each of us our going to buy or sell BTC based on various aspects, including our beliefs about the BTC fundamentals, as well as maybe other matters such as news and TA Graphs.

In that regard, if you are NOT even willing to take a bet that BTC prices will be below $500 for at least half of the next 365 days, then you would even be less confident that your statement about BTC never being above $460 was even a very probably statement in your own thinking.... probably well less than 1 or 2%, and yet you made it.

Anyhow, I do NOT want to argue about it, but it just seemed to be a quite outrageous thing to communicate as if it were possible based on the totality of what is going on with bitcoin.