LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
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k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
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/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
I have absolutely no idea of what the price will do. However the market clearly is not that optimistic, otherwise the price today would be at least 4000 x 50% = 2000$.
The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.