How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
sub 1% total. 6 is not a case. in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.
I guess when you have 0 knoweldge on finance, then you can't see that the main thing that gives value to BTC is actually USD and without USD, then BTC would be just a fun play money without the ability to cost anything.