How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
A bit of clarification needed:
1. unlikely to happen soon.
2. possible selfish miner attack, can be mitigated.
3. unlikely to happen soon.
4. possible in China.
5. quite possible after this rebound runs out of steam.
6. which economy, whole one or just the bitcoin economy (drugs, money laundering, capital control evasion)?