Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total. 6 is not a case. in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

The local unicredit Branch employees are Bitcoin bulls, I know few of them personally, but this doesn't represent the big picture of what Unicredit Bank as a corporate thinks about Bitcoin which is unknown for me...

I'm sure they are, I suspect the Bitstamp account brings in quite a nice bit of revenue and fees.

But that's not the point, right? We were assigning probabilities to events, pulled out of our asses, but motivated by our experience and expectations. And my experience and expectation is that the banking interface is a fragile one, that could break. Not likely, so I personally don't see more than a, say, 5% chance that it happens, but "sub 1%" is another way of saying it's nigh impossible, and that I disagree with.