How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
sub 1% total. 6 is not a case. in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.
"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?
That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).
EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.
There's definitely a good chance of that happening, as Bitstamp is operating with a corporate account - exactly the same type of account that you would have to receive payments for selling goods or services, the type of account in which you can commingle funds because they are legally yours as soon as you get them - but as Bitstamp is not selling goods or services but acting as a financial intermediary you can see clearly how they are non-compliant with EU regulation regarding PSP (payment services providers) and other financial intermediaries. They either need to have a banking license (lengthy and extremely expensive process) or to operate under the banking license of a banking partner (not easy because the bank would have full responsibility on customer funds - Fidor is doing that for Bitcoin.de as you can see on Bitcoin.de's disclaimer, while Unicredit is definitely NOT doing that for Bitstamp).
All in all, what davout (founder of Bitcoin Central) is saying
HERE is definitely right, I can guarantee you that as I've made my own thorough due diligence with regulators in more than one EU country. Truth is Bitcoin Central is *mostly* compliant, as they are using a banking partner that opens one separate bank account for each one of their customers - that's the way to go, otherways as soon as regulators needs to fine you, or to freeze a certain amount of money because of suspicious activity, they will have to freeze all customers funds as they sit on a single bank account that is legally property of the exchange and not of the customers themselves.
Bitstamp either becomes compliant or it gets sold to a big fish that will make it compliant or it will be shut down eventually. Probably they have made enough millions to become a bank, but saying that there is less than 1% chance for them to be shut down is simply delusional.