Even before this news about Luca Modric, Manchester City had a higher chance to beat Real Madrid, especially in the first because they are in better form and they can have a better performance compared to Real Madrid because of the previous games we saw from both teams and now the absence of Modric in can increase the possibility for Manchester City to win this game.
At first glance it seems that City are in better shape now, this is most likely the case, but this is Real Madrid, they know how to concentrate on one game, that is, regardless of their results, they are able to play a great game, so underestimating Real Madrid who reached the semi-finals would be stupid of Guardiola. City really look like a team that can win this Champions League, but we know many examples where experience is more important than current form.