It's an indicator and indicators can be used on speculation, nobody says that the scenario will repeat itself but that's what speculation is about, people try to guess patterns, nothing wrong with it. As for your other advice, I have a story about the pot and kettle for you. 


It's a pretty normal thing, a lot except after a sudden pump a correction, check the graph, the fear index went down far faster than the price, and not just once, it does it quite regularly especially when the price is near a round number or what trades perceive as resitance.