I am sure you can make some very profitable bets with the fellow posters, who have given quite different odds!
Indeed, but (as I wrote some time ago) I never bet more than a pizza and beer, and that only when I am fairly certain that I am right and the other guy is wrong, and I know why. (Some 10 years ago I bet with a few net friends that the Voynich manuscript was in Chinese or some other Asian language. The bet is still undecided. Once I met one of them in person and offered to pay the bet, just to "clean up the account", but he gallantly refused. After that, I bet wiith a physicist here in Brazil that the Gran Sasso faster-than-light neutrinos were just expermental error. I still have to collect that one, he lives 500 km from here. I feel that I have taken too much risk already for this decade

)