It’s too early to expect a bullish trend that emerges before the halving. The halving won’t take place until April 2024. And bulls will be rampant 6 months before that. We should hope for their activity from about November 2023.
The state of the network which is currently filled with spam transactions so that the fees are rising very high, raises doubts that the halving will have an effect on the price of BTC which is common in several previous halvings, so it is true that you are saying that it is still too early to judge the state of the market after the halving later right now, because the network will improve and people will return to transacting normally, because if this continues it will slowly leave Bitcoin for a while and use other networks to transact.
However, slowly the halving effect may decrease because repeats will be easy for the market to take advantage of and big institutions or whale will take other steps that will be more profitable for them than retail.