Patience is a virtue.

NATO-country populations are starting to get things figured out and getting restive, but they need more softening up via the Ukraine-war treatment.  If next winter is a hard one, that will expedite the process.

The Poles, and probably the Baltics, will never get it figured out.  So happens that these are also the ones which also need some property line adjustments for a 'better Europe' moving forward.  The trick is going to be to get Polish forces to set foot in Ukraine formally.  Once that trap is set, blitzkrieg right down the the Polish/Ukrainian border.  If the Poles can be induced to fire from the Polish side, then poof!  No more Article 5.  If the rest of the European populations are sufficiently pissed about NATO mistakes and grifts, unhappy with Polish idiocy, and genuinely concerned about how far things might progress in their direction, they would tend to 'understand' that Russia/White-Russia is reacting to an attack from Poland.  Hopefully the people would, en-mass, decide that desolving NATO is vastly preferable to risking the end of the world in support of the rabid Poles.

I believe that the Russians would be just fine having a rather large but land-locked RumpPolKrainistan centered  where they are now (which so happens to be suspiciously situated over the old 'pale of settlement'.)  It would serve as dumping zone for Nazis and other associated creeps.  The important thing would be to have direct transit points to other countries for transport of goods, energy, etc, which bypasses (South and North) the garbage heap so they cannot control and tax trade.  I'll bet that Russia would be very happy to stop right there and get back to building up their country since that seems to be what the are most interested in at this time.