Why don't you take Mainz into account? I don't think it will be an easy game - Mainz have every chance of getting into European competition and they will play to win. The game with Leipzig looks like a key one for Bayern, but in fact, where the loss of points will happen is unknown. Judging by the team statistics, this loss should happen with almost 100% probability - both teams should score 9 points each (18 in total), but in fact both teams score only 70% points on average. Thus, I am sure that not everything is decided yet.
Since main was not a tough opponent for dortmind in the first meeting and i could not consider it as a strong opponent for dortmund. Dortmund was losing against gladbach with huge scores in the previous meeting. It may make dortmund feel a bit scary to face gladbach rather than mainz.
To be honest if everything will be decided by seeing the result from all of the matches.
Dortmund lose and bayern win = bayern win trophy
Bayern lose and dortmund win = dortmund win trophy even though the probability will quite small caused by there will be only two points gap
The result still unknowns but it will determine who will be potentially wining the trophy.