just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual. almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen. On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...
The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.
the point is not
if we get a parabolic run after a halving, but
when after the halving.
Last time it started actually earlier than expected (not around eoy like usual).
Are you saying that people weren't expecting a pump in 2020 after halving?
I'm saying that with every cycle it gets more unlikely that the bullrun schedule stays the same with evermore people expecting said schedule.
You could already see that the last bullrun started a bit earlier, and that it had an almost double top. quite different from what most people expected.