Have you noticed that there are 2 main types of analysts?
Type 1: The pattern is repeating.
These guys look for something in the past and think it's going to happen again. Some examples of their thinking:
Last time the bitcoin bear market took 400 days, so we're going to be in a bear market for at least that long.
In the last bull market bitcoin made 20x the former ATH so this time it's gong to do the same.
Last time bitcoin lost 75% in the bear market so this time it will also do it.

Type 2: This time is different.
These guys contradict type 1 analysts by looking for things that can mess up their predictions.
But this time we're in a recession.
But this time we're also in a stock bear market.
But there's a war in Ukraine.
But this time bitcoin can't go 20x because there's too many altcoins that take away from the total market cap.
In the last bear market there was no FTX.


OP is obviously doing the type 1 kind of work.