I think what you are saying is total BS! Sorry to say but what is the point of this assumptions? I call them assumptions because you have  made some claims without any reference. Since you are driving the narrative that the value of bitcoins will not rise soon, is it your intentions to discourage people from continuing to keep the bitcoins that they have been keeping since? No newbie to cryptocurrency should pay attention to this because the market still remains highly unpredictable and certainly not predictions made based on some few events.