There is an interesting game between Valladolid and Sevilla as well this evening. This is an important game for both sides actually. Because while Valladolid are trying to not get in the relegation zone Sevilla are in the fight for the 7th position mathematically. The point gap between Sevilla and Girona is only 4 now but there are 3 teams between as well so Sevilla's job is still quite difficult.
Besides they are going to play the rematch against Juventus in Spain four days later as well. Therefore maybe Mendilibar might not want to risk some of their crucial players here. I think both teams to score and Valladolid's double chance are options to think of. I don't feel like Valladolid will lose this home.
it is very possible, Valladolid is in dire need of points to get away from the relegation zone while Sevilla will not play so insistently in this match as they are preparing for an important match in the Europa League semi-final against Juventus in the second leg.
I even think about betting on Valladolid's victory in this match because it allows for huge profits, the possibility for Valladolid to win the match is still quite wide open, so I think there's nothing wrong with taking a little risk for big profits.
Just as I read your post I thought you are onto something here and while you are not wrong that Valladolid probably has a good chance to win that game because Sevilla only play at 80% or so, the bookies already took that into account. You get something around 2.25 if Valladolid wins the game. I think that is quite low. Even if I don't expect Sevilla to play their best in this game, I still do think that a draw is definitely a possibility. Winning isn't easy here, but in my opinion the odds are a little bit too low. Don't you think so?