Meanwhile, Bakhmut is taken.
By meanwhile you mean that a 17.000 habitants city, not too far from the RF borders, has been flattened to the ground to the point that is no longer a city and that has only taken... 1 week? 1 month? half a year?.... no, it has taken 1 year, since May 2022!
If that is how the Pyschos intend to keep waging war in Ukraine, I forecast what is basically a suicide for the current regime. The amount of money, men, resources and political capital employed make this war an economic suicide for the RF. BTW... watch your flanks... it may take 1 year to get it, but it may take 1 week to run from it.
I am thinking of it. Why would Ukraine choose to defend Bakhmut? Why did Ukraine need one more year to keep the RF busy in what is a not very strategically significant area. What did happen during that year?
- EU and US committed billions in additional aid.
- Ukrainian troops have been trained in a variety of systems. Notably in the Patriot, but not only in the Patriot.
- A number of Ukrainian pilots have been trained in F-16, which are going to be "freed" by the US so that allies can send them to Ukraine.
- A number of MBTs, IFV, artillery and other vehicles have arrived to Ukraine with their crews trained.
It seems to me that the cost of taking Bakhmut is not just the dead and the equipment lost. We will see along the summer.
Why complicate things? Look at it in a simple way... like this.
Russia is much larger than Ukraine. The Russian military is much larger than Ukraine's military. So...
Just to throw out some example figures, imagine that Ukraine's military was 10,000, and Russia's was 100,000. Let's say that they were killing each other off 1 to 1. This means that when Ukraine has killed off 10,000 Russians, there won't be any Ukraine military left... but there will still be 90,000 Russians left.
The fact is more like Russians are killing 6 or 7 Ukrainians for each Russian dead. Get the picture? Ukraine is being played... by the US, Nato, and Russia. The smart Ukrainians left months ago, by the millions.
Blab all you want. The fact of the matter is that there won't be any Ukrainians left in a very short time from now.
Your numbers are incorrect and the concepts on which it is based are incorrect and your conclusion do not match anything remotely close to reality. Your approach is not simple, it is simplistic because you are someone who likes simple yet wrong answers to real but complex to solve problems.
You want also a simplistic yet wrong argument? Here it goes: It took the RF 1 year to conquer a 17.000 pre-war population city. Thus it will take around 500 years to conquer Ukraine. As stupid as your calculation, see.
You want another simple yet wrong answer: Here it goes: The military budget of the RF is not even 1/10 of all the countries supporting Ukraine. Thus the RF has 1 in 10 chances of achieving a military "victory".
Russian was larger a year ago and had, in theory, a larger army, yet here we are. The RF and Ukraine are not even close to a full mobilisation, being the RF on an offensive imperial war and Ukraine simply defending their homeland, the political will to accept losses is very different. Thus, the ratios you mention are meaningless.
Let me educate you: nearly 99% of wars are economic, and this is not exception. The governments tend to say other things (religion, rightful government, revolutions, and for Putin "Nazis and Zionists, etc...) The war in Ukraine only works for the RF if it is economically beneficial, and that is no longer the case no matter what they do, unless they basically take all the territory of Ukraine and install a puppet. (e.g. you cannot be waging war for 500 years).
If Ukraine losses it ceases to exist. If the RF looses (whatever "loosing" means") it is likely that nothing will change (except if it is such a defeat that leaves the country in shambles, which is not going to happen). The RF is being played, Europe is being played and Ukraine has been left with no option but to fight thanks to Putin's clumsiness. I know who the winners, no matter what, are on this one: US, Saudis, Turkey, Israel and all weapons producers.
The "smart Ukrainians who left" and nothing compared to the "smart Russians who left" and are actually willing to go back - not the case for Russians, who probably can't anyway without risking jail.
Actually, it is your numbers that are wrong... as be.open is continually showing you one way or another. be.open has just explained why Wagner didn't simply overrun Bakhmut. Ukrainian solders were ordered to stay and fight to the end. Did they? If they did, they are dead... just reinforcement for the things that I have been saying. If they didn't, an Ukraine loss.
All the while you consider the failing US/Nato banking system as support for Ukraine, we are seeing growth in BRICS and BRICS ideas and nations. At the rate the US and Nato are helping Ukraine win, BRICS will have overcome them long before a Ukraine win can happen.
Half the Ukrainian population left Ukraine. Russia might have lost a small percent of her people, but she gained a whole lot more in Crimea and the whole Donbas area... to say nothing about other lands that have joined Russia.
You can talk about 99% of wars that act this way or that way, but there are other people who explain it all differently. The point is, Ukraine has already lost militarily. And their loss is causing the US and Nato to quietly back off. It can be seen that trade in Russia has gone right around the sanctions; they were a failure. Even trade in Ukraine is starting to act like there isn't any war going on. The war will soon end, and Russia will absorb a whole big bunch of Ukraine... economically if not in formal land acquisition.
This is NATO quietly backing off:
https://www.politico.eu/article/urkaine-war-germany-new-arms-package/
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Germany approves new €2.7B package of arms for Ukraine
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html
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US signals to allies it won’t block their export of F-16 jets to Ukraine
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/poland-fighter-jets-ukraine-intl/index.html
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Poland becomes first to pledge fighter jets to Ukraine
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-patriot-missile-system-4c79f9110899ca1880a61f2d1f328179
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US-made Patriot guided missile systems arrive in Ukraine
You are not offering "the unofficial truth", you are not linking to "an alternative better information", you are simply blurting information that is detached from reality to the point that is basically fake. This might or not change, but NATO does not want the RF to show any kind of credible victory simply because after this war they will wage another, and another,...