My issue is that, If I did that right now, I'd sell at a 50% loss. The counter to that is that if im swapping for BTC, the btc price is also down, so.....
CMC stats explains that as of today the price of bitcoin against USD has decreased by 60% from ATH, and etherum is 62%, and this is the realization of your loss if you exchange to fiat or a stable coin.
I don't know the 50% loss you'll get by exchanging the two assets, did you mean the swap fee? Since ETH volatility tends to always follow BTC, I think your loss is only in the range of 2 to 7% if you look at the price history between june-july '21. Or you're willing to write down the details of your calculations.
No, I kind of came to the same conclusion you did with the 2 to 7%. When I was buying Eth, both Eth and BTC were up, but they are both down. If I waited until Eth was up, it would be more than likely that BTC would also be up since BTC moves first, so at this point, it probably doesnt matter too much to make a huge difference. With Linear thinking, Eth would be back up to $4500-$5000 and BTC would stay the same. lol, not happening.