Unless there is another catastrophe to hit the world, like China invading Taiwan, then it feels like things are slowly getting better right now. Russia's invasion of Ukraine created some huge domino effects which rippled around the world, not least of which is Russia ending up much poorer and with less influence - especially as it has showed up their ridiculously bad military. Sure, Europe has to pay a bit more for oil and gas, but to preserve freedom it makes sense to accept that. We probably took for granted that they wouldn't do something so stupid, because a lot of staple ingredients like wheat came out of these two countries which have been ravished by war. It's always the poorest who will suffer first and the richest countries that suffer last.
You could never know, you gave a great example with Taiwan, we wouldn't really know if that will happen or not, maybe it will, maybe it won't. The whole world is on the verge of collapsing and we are watching, why do you think we have more and more floods and fires every single year, wait for this summer and I guarantee you 100% that there will be huge fires somewhere on the world, no idea where it will pop up this time, but it happens every summer, didn't when I was back in college or high school.
So we could definitely have world shattering stuff at any time, or maybe we won't. If we do, then we are going to see financially strain billions this time, and there is no pretty way out of that, it is going to screw over everyone, even rich people will be impacted hugely this time around.