Which would you pick?
The point you are seemingly missing or ignoring is that the odds of either great luck or terrible luck happening are the same, and you don't know which will happen ahead of time. You don't get to pick.
Yes, larger pools provide smaller variance. Everyone knows that.
Given that your BTC payout per block is constant (as per our assumptions), I'd much rather have the first option.
What the heck, I'll play along. How do I choose the pool which is about to have 3 months of finding blocks at twice the normal rate? Yes I'll choose that option too. Will you share which pool it is going to be?