Post
Topic
Board Altcoin Discussion
Re: Has Bitcoin Lost it's Fervor for Percentage Gains?
by
Winderl
on 04/06/2023, 06:32:07 UTC
With regard to Issac's question in Quote #34, that's a good point.  Let's say you had invested $30,000 in the last bear market.  If you had bought 1 BTC at an avg. price of $7,500 and sold it for an avg. price of $50,000.  Then let's say you accumulated a $22,500 position in ETH between $100-$200.  Let's say you bought 150 ETH at an avg. price of $150, which would be a $22,500 position.  And let's say you sold that position of 150 ETH for an avg. of $4,000, which would equal $600,000.  So when you add the proceeds of the $50,000 BTC, you would now have about $650,000 in cash, with about a $620,000 profit.
    And if you played with the numbers, and invested 50% in BTC and 50% in ETH instead, and used the same numbers, and bought 2 BTC at an avg. price of $7,500, and sold them at an avg. price of $50,000, you would have $100,000 in cash.  And if you had spent $15,000 on ETH, you would have 100 ETH at $150.  And then sold them for an avg. of $4000, you would have $400,000.  Or together $500,000, with a $470,000 profit. 
    Or if you had instead invested $22,500 in BTC at the same prices, you would have bought 3 BTC and sold them at $150,000.  And a $7,500 position in ETH would be 50 ETH at $150.  If you sold those at an avg. $4,000 you would have $200,000, plus the $150,000 from the BTC or $350,000.  And that would be a profit of $320,000. 
    The last bull market was a little bit lackluster compared to the other ones, but that was really the 1st one with that characteristic.  I don't think that necessarily means that they'll be continually a little less bullish with each cycle.  I would give it a 50% chance the next bull cycle could be more bullish than the last, and a 50% chance that it would just be similar to the last, but then the following cycles after that could be potentially less and less bullish.
    Now not everyone will have $30,000 to invest, and even if you have more than $50,000 to invest, $50,000 becomes a number that personally I think a lot of people will set as a limit to allocate toward crypto.  So good point Issac, maybe there were not that many millionaires made in the last bull cycle.
    In the previous cycle before that, so say 2 cycles ago, for the sake of keeping the example easy, let's say you purchased a combined $29,700 worth of BTC & ETH, something very close to the $30,000 model.  And the breakdown was 17 BTC at an avg. purchase price of $1,100 a coin, which would have cost you $18,700 and that you sold for an avg. of $15,000 a coin.  Your proceeds would be $255,000.  And let's say you purchased 1,000 ETH at an avg. price of $11 a coin, and sold them for an avg. of $1,000 a coin.  Your proceeds would have been about $1,000,000.  And if you add that to the BTC proceeds, you would have $1,255,000, with a profit of $1,225,300.  I'm guessing many more millionaires were made during this bull cycle than the most recent bull cycle.