Wisdom of Crowds theory says that the average of our guesses should be more accurate than any single guess. This should be a motivation for us to contribute our predictions regardless of our self-supposed expertise.

What I would add to your thinking is to distinguish bubbles as the chief bitcoin price phenomenon.

Furthermore, I suggest a survey in addition to particular predictions. Survey data to be gathered would include . . .

• whether the participant agrees that there are bubbles
• what is the current bubble phase, i.e. pre-peak, post-peak, pre-bottom, post-bottom
• what is the predicted time to the next bubble phase
• peak price of the next peak
• month of the next peak
• price of the next post-peak bottom
• month of the next post-peak bottom
• year during which 50% adoption occurs

If there is no better place, I would conduct such a survey each month on my logistic price model thread.