There are two events that have occurred in the past one month in Nigeria that have the potential to impact the exchange rate.
1. The Launching of Dangote Refinery:
It is believed that the facility could produce adequate refined fuel ⛽ for local consumption. Asides that, the excess production could be exported. Export means demand for the NGN and appreciation of the currency.
2. The BAT administration :
The BAT administration is very critical for the economy of Nigeria. Starting with the removal of fuel subsidy and the reaction of the USD to NGN as a result is just one of the many policies to be introduced.
How do you think these two events could impact the strength of NGN against the USD? Will you buy and save USDTinstead of saving in NGN?
The two me mentioned are not big enough to impact or influence the value of the naira vs the US dollar, the only thing that I can point to that can impact and make changes to the exchange rate is the move by the president to make just one exchange price, which means the naira will have a unified value unlike what we currently have that we have dollar vs black market price vs CBN official rate.
Note that the Dangote refinery was just commissioned but the truth is the refinery is not functional yet because it has not been fully built and it will take up to August to October 2023 to have the refinery working and which is a long time from now that may make different sense to Nigerians.