Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
By betting that the downtrend will continue, you are betting against exponential growth. Why would you do it?
It's funny how you phrase your question. Reminds me of arguments like "If you're not a Christian, then you're against god" or "If you don't agree with the United States of America, then you are against democracy".
To clear up what I'm saying here. I am not betting against exponential growth in general and I can't even imagine how one could do that. I am telling, that I'm not sure if bitcoin can grow much larger. It has trouble passing certain critical thresholds that are needed for further growth. Exponential growth only applies, if there are needed qualities and influences that allow it to grow. Exponential growth isn't something that is bitcoins god given right, that is written in stone and will happen no matter what.
Are you saying that it has suddenly become much more difficult than before to reach the next order of magnitude of userbase and, hence, valuation?
Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying! It's not 2011 anymore where the price could be held up by youngesters and eager gamblers, who have no idea on what they're doing. You can't just draw lines on the graphs with adding a lot of meaningless numbers and calculations to give the prediction more weight. You can't just pump the price a little to jumpstart a sustainable rise
Bitcoin is too bloated for it to be sustained by people who would fall for these simple tricks. There has to be a lot more weight then that, to prove the value of bitcoin to those people, who would decide over the sums needed to start a sustainable rise.
And saying that in the exact relative low point of the price according to the trend so far?
I really don't care about the trend of the previous years, because bitcoin was a different animal altogether over just about 18 months ago. The tresholds were different, the investors were different and it's practical use was different.
I think that the problem is, that the older generation of bitcoin adopters want everything to be as simple as it was couple of years ago, and they try to force the same simplistic view of things onto the market. And if it won't fit, then there will be a lot of whining or talks about conspiracies on why didn't it fit.
I would recommend this: try to evolve, try to see how bitcoin has evolved and how the trendline that applied to 2012 won't fit at 2014. And if you try to make it fit by force, then you're only messing up the market by creating a lot of confusion and uncertainty. This is not a precious metal, this is an highly experimental piece of technology, that doesn't have a ready built framework to enter society. Try to grasp that, dude.