Why this difference if halving happens after a fixed number of blocks?
Just like what Upgrade00 said the average time is estimated at 10 minutes but this varies as the time to time and this could alter the calculations of the halving. Although the difficulty reduces or increase depending on how fast 2016 blocks are mined but this little effect could also reduce or increase the average time for the halving. If the after a calculation the average time to mine almost every block equates to 9 minutes then the halving will come week(s) ahead of the initial date. So as long as there is no exact time to mine the 210,000 then the exact date can’t be known.
But I guess it might take a pretty long time to get there after the halving because right now I don't see the economic situation getting better in the world. The US still needs to lower inflation and until then, it will be killing the economy with high interest rates
It’s not even the economic situation but even after halving a new all time high is hardly reached. Although there is always a bull run after the halving but base on past halvings the ATH is either marched or surpassed when it is almost a year after the halving. Although economic conditions and government policy will have effect on it, but I am looking towards the probability of the close to 100k mark around the end of 2024 and the first or second quarter of 2025