There are really Bitcoiners who bought Bitcoin at $40k and some even above that, but most of them are still holding despite the fact that the market is still bearish. So, if you think you are at a loss because of the market, remember that there are also a lot of Bitcoiners who may have bought at a higher price than you did. Bitcoin investment is mostly long-term and not just what you will buy this month and expect to make profit the next month. If you want to make a profit in Bitcoin, then you should be ready to hold until the price becomes bullish again, because as long as you hold onto your Bitcoin and never sell it at a cheap price, you have not lost anything.
You made a valid point that, for Bitcoin investors, it is very important to understand that this market is very volatile and like other markets it also goes through bull and bear cycles and it is very challenging to predict the duration of these cycles . The other significant factor is our belief in potential of Bitcoin to thrive overtime. This belief greatly influences the success of our investment in the long term.
If you just have faith without you analyzing it technically, of course the success you will get is luck,
it can even be said to be an investment bet because you don't know how it will go,
but if we analyze technically, of course we know when we buy and when we sell.