Anyone who thinks that Bitcoin has anything higher than 0.1% chance of success, should rationally buy bitcoins. The trick is that buying increases the chance of success. With a few iterations you realize that the chance of success is actually something between 25% and 75%. Then you are very willing to buy bitcoins. Which increases the price, rewards previous investors, gets more people interested, and makes the chance go up. In 3-5 years we have everybody using bitcoins, and an ordinary person has 5mBTC in the west and 1mBTC in BRIC.
Why was the adoption of a new technology with network effects never before so interesting?
Because money is the
ultimate network effect. By definition, money is the most marketable commodity. In other words, the most liquid commodity is
de facto money.