Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Grafzep
on 15/04/2014, 21:13:23 UTC


I like what that one dude said about buying bitcoin being akin to buying options with no expiry date. It changed my way of looking at things.

This is exactly what I thought when I started buying. I traded gold and silver options back in the day to gear up my physical positions and I always hated rolling over (or not) on expiry. With BTC I loved the idea of (amongst other things) taking a hedge against the shaky-looking financial system (Chancellor on the brink...) without value time decay and in fact a good chance, by design, of appreciation over time.

It amazes me that anyone with an interest in economics or PMs or trading of any kind wouldn't take a position in BTC, even a small one. The downside limit is just your stake, but the upside possibility is immense. People talk about diversifying, usually into a less risky asset when another has done well, but diversifying is also about having a little something from the wild side, just for the chance of a moon shot. That's how you beat the averages, that's how you break out. In those terms BTC is a no-brainer.

When I first started buying in summer '12, there was still a real risk of complete collapse - that's why it was cheap. In the 22 months since the protocol has withstood a hacking/stealing technical onslaught and the tech odds are very much more in favour of survival, so the risk/reward has changed. Now the price is weighed down by regulatory uncertainty and is cheap because of the PTB onslaught. It may successfully come out the other side in which case the price would obviously go nuts, but even it doesn't there will be some market for a proven, robust, near-anonymous, trans-national, transferrable store of value.

Why on earth wouldn't you hold a least a few as a portfolio outlier? No need to trade, no need to guzzle the kool-aid or even hang around here, it's simply the easiest bet of trading lifetime.