Manchester City is the favorite to win the final. Yes, even though they are superior, of course you shouldn't underestimate Inter Milan. The final match certainly has a different atmosphere, not only the tactics of a coach but the mentality of the players will also greatly affect the course of the match.
I predict Manchester City will take the initiative to dominate from the first half, if they manage to score in the first half then you can say the trophy will be theirs. Pep Guardiola certainly has many brilliant strategies that will be implemented for his team, you can see how the strategy he implemented when he paralyzed Real Madrid, it was so extraordinary that a coach of Ancelotti's caliber was unable to understand this tactic.
Inzaghi must have studied a number of strategies implemented by Pep Guardiola, he will certainly respond to Manchester City's style of play. But in my opinion, Inzaghi must be able to force his opponent not to control the defense area, meaning as much as possible to prevent goals from happening in the first half. I'm sure that if we manage to hold on to a draw and go into extra time then Inter's chances will be even greater.
I think you are right here, but someone else already said that there are also things that come into play that nobody can predict and that nobody can influence too much. In the game against Manchester United there was a penalty given against Manchester City and it was a lucky one. One of those handballs where the player didn't even see the ball and then it slightly touched the hand and the penalty was given. These unlucky events can happen in any game and this is something I wouldn't cross out of the range of possibilities for this game. There is always a little luck factor that can bring Inter back into the game even if they concede a goal early. Yes it will be infinitely more difficult for them if they concede a goal early because Manchester City will hardly give the ball away afterwards, but they won't be able to prevent any and all ball possession for Inter Milan. They will get a few chances as well and whether that is a corner kick or some cross balls, nobody can tell, but Inter is still Inter and not some lower level team. I also think that the winner of this game will be Manchester City, but I hope that it stays exciting for as long as possible.