Determine if the team is a loser against the spread, a loser on the money line, or a loser on both
Teams that lose against the spread and money line are usually bad bets. You can find a winning game among an SU and ATS loser, but it doesn’t happen often enough for you to make long term profit betting on the team.
We want teams that have no worse than a .400 record against the spread or no worse than a .400 record on the money line.
A lot of times straight up winning teams are bad against the spread bets. The more a team wins straight up, the more oddsmakers adjust spread lines in favor of underdogs.
Remember, human beings like to bet on winners. So to attract action on the other side of the line, oddsmakers turn favored teams into underlays with ridiculous spreads.
Once we find the team, we can move to step 2.
Discover why the team loses
.400 teams aren’t the same as a .300 team. A .300 team is likely just a bad team. But a .400 team often has a losing record due to some anomaly, like an injured offensive lineman, or like in Milwaukee’s case versus Miami in this year’s NBA Playoffs, their best player not being one-hundred percent.
Try to find out why the team loses. Once you believe you’ve discovered why, move to step 3
Teams that lose against the spread and money line are usually bad bets. You can find a winning game among an SU and ATS loser, but it doesn’t happen often enough for you to make long term profit betting on the team.
We want teams that have no worse than a .400 record against the spread or no worse than a .400 record on the money line.
A lot of times straight up winning teams are bad against the spread bets. The more a team wins straight up, the more oddsmakers adjust spread lines in favor of underdogs.
Remember, human beings like to bet on winners. So to attract action on the other side of the line, oddsmakers turn favored teams into underlays with ridiculous spreads.
Once we find the team, we can move to step 2.
Discover why the team loses
.400 teams aren’t the same as a .300 team. A .300 team is likely just a bad team. But a .400 team often has a losing record due to some anomaly, like an injured offensive lineman, or like in Milwaukee’s case versus Miami in this year’s NBA Playoffs, their best player not being one-hundred percent.
Try to find out why the team loses. Once you believe you’ve discovered why, move to step 3
I think that betting on a team to lose the game and making a correct prediction is just as difficult as betting on a team to win and getting it right. I think mostly because when matches are played, the players are on an eye to eye level. Otherwise the match would not be worth it and gambling would be too easy. Nobody wants to see or bet on a Mike Tyson vs a baby match...
