I'd have much preferred a re-test of $25K prior to closing strong back above the 200 WMA, which would have signalled strength in the market. But instead last weeks close only signalled weakness. Hence without the combination of $25K previous resistance turning into new support, along with confirming the 200 WMA as support, I see the next realistic downside target as around $23K, close to the 50 Week MA.
I'm pretty much agrees with you re-test of 25K is very high at this point, especially with the SEC news and we didn't see good news too from here. Tho the 25K is now becoming a support zone from the previous resistance zone it seems 30K zone can break if the good news comes or maybe next month or August seems very hard to break tho
is the blue line the 200 WMA and is that volume profile in right of your chart?