Indeed, predicting the price of bitcoin is very difficult. Anything can happen in the crypto market. However, while nothing is certain, I don't think bitcoin is likely to drop below $18k again. Moreover, if it is in accordance with the 4-year cycle, next year there will be a halving. Where usually before the halving the price of bitcoin tends to go up and down more stable and not to fall like last year.
It isn't always difficult when you understand the market due to your years of experience trading the cryptocurency market. Predicting the exact price that Bitcoin will be trading at a particular time becomes difficult as that's almost impossible due to different exchange trading Bitcoin.
Predicting the movement of the market can be done, Example, after the US SEC filed a lawsuit against some of the very known exchanges in the industry, it was inevitable that the market will react and the price of Bitcoin will start falling and it'll affect altcoins as well.
We're still in a bear market and any news that's bad for the cryptocurrency market will affect the price of all crypto, Bitcoin included just as it has happened even when the lawsuit wasn't against those exchange trading Bitcoin but directly targeted at altcoins that are security.