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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
rpietila
on 16/04/2014, 07:30:05 UTC
I have not thought it through, wanted to have feedback! Smiley

From my background the intuitive thing is to use F1 measure as a score.  Or area under ROC curve.  There are good wikipedia articles about these.


These seemed to be concerned with binary outcomes. I want a metric that is continuous. I am developing one currently Smiley

Eureka! It is this simple:

- Every predictor gives two prices in log scale eg. "In 2014-5-16 the price is between 2.7 and 2.85 (roughly 500 and 700)"

- When the actual price is known, you take min [ abs ( actual - upper_limit); abs ( actual - lower_limit) ]

- Whoever has the lowest average error after a reasonable number of predictions (predictions can be renewed as often as you wish regardless of their maturity) is the best!  Grin

- Proof omitted  Wink