I wish you were right.
However, if we continue to lose 1.36% of all btc a year, then it is a problem, isn't it?
Now, that you found that quote, it looks like that the 256 year 'solution' was really an omission from him than intent.
I can only think that he wasn't aware of the scope of the problem back in 2010, because the argument that "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more" holds water only until all are lost, which is a finite amount of time, especially if it is that much a year (less than 60 years).
Whatever solutions I wrote in-I don't care about them, just a small suggestion, it could be something else, but the eventual "evaporation" problem is real and cannot be dismissed easily, and even mathematically as long as the loss is material and there is no add-ons after 2140.
I think it is about being
realistic more than being right...
And this 1.36% you are referring, would only be an estimate, as know one will know how many keys have been lost/misplaced or a boating accident.
But lets just assume 1.36% is correct for a minute....
Also is it 1.36% of total supply (approx 21M) or total current supply?
Applying that 1.36% to 21M vs Current Supply would yield a completely different set of results.
Let's use the Fixed Value of 21M....
Year 1: 285,600BTC lost each year
Year 2: 285,600BTC lost each year
Year 3: 285,600BTC lost each year
Year 4: 285,600BTC lost each year
......
After 75 years.. ZERO Access to ALL Coins....
Every 4 Years we lost 1M Bitcoins? in 40Years we will lose half of all bitcoins....
At year 73 there will be 436,800BTC left in circulation, which means 1 in every 2 coins will be lost!
In year 75 everyone's key vanishes?
If you use the 1.36% on current circulating supply... Then it will take 1,231 Years before there is 1BTC left in circulation.
Just being realistic man... i am sure if we were down to our last drinkable water supply, we do everything in our power to keep it from evaporating away!